By Bill Peterson
Here are two questions anyone who handicaps horse races should know and be able to answer correctly, "Which horses win 60-70% of all horse races and why is that so important?"
The answer is that the top three contenders win about two thirds of all races.
Why is that important? Here are three reasons...
Reason #1. Because they are going to win most of the races you bet on. How do you quickly spot the top three contenders? Easily, just look at the odds board. The horses who have the lowest odds are the most likely contenders.
Now I know a lot of punters are looking for value in the pools and trying to find an overlay. I also know many of you don't like to bet the favorite or a low priced horse. That is understandable.
But you have to be realistic and admit that those three horses, the ones with the lowest odds, win the majority of races. Now ask yourself this, "Do I have a bias against low priced horses even if betting them will be profitable?"
Reason #2. You're missing some great bets. If you spend all your time scouring a program looking for a great 15-1 horse to bet and keep overlooking that great 5-2 horse, then you have a sickness known as "longshot-itis." The cure for longshot-itis is to sit down and go over those old programs and see how many times a horse with all the credentials to be a winner was passed over for some highly questionable longshot.
Reason #3. There are probably more value bets in the top three contenders. That's right, there may be more value in the lower priced horses than in the longshots, because they really do have what it takes to win. I love longshots as much as anyone does and have bet on my share, but I also love a 3-1 horse who is going against an even money horse that is way over bet. Talk about value.
There are systems to find value in the top three contenders and systems to hit nice longshots. I recommend using both when handicapping any race and seeing which one produces the best opportunities.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.
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