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John Howard, the prime minister, declared on July 31st that he would stay on to contest a fifth election as party leader in the general election due late next year. Since Mr Howard has led the party to four successive victories in ten years, most Liberal members of Parliament applauded his decision.
The applause died a little two days later, however, when Australia's central bank announced a 0.25% rise in interest rates, to 6%. Ian Macfarlane, the bank's governor, said it was needed to dampen rising inflation and increased borrowing. It was the third such rise since the last election, in 2004. Mr Howard won that poll by appealing to voters to trust his conservative government to "keep interest rates low". It was a rash promise: the central bank operates independently of government. Its latest rate rise has unnerved heavily indebted Australians. It has also sent jitters through the Liberal Party.
The subject of Mr Howard's retirement plans has dogged him ever since he once suggested he would consider his future when he turned 64. Last month he turned 67. Peter Costello, the treasurer (finance minister), deputy Liberal leader and heir-apparent, confirmed a press report in July that Mr Howard had given him a private undertaking in 1994 that he would hand over the leadership to Mr Costello after one-and-a-half terms of a Liberal government. Mr Howard denied it.
Having already become Australia's second-longest-serving prime minister, Mr Howard always had an option to retire well before the 2007 election with his impressive record of economic management intact. The bitter public row with Mr Costello over the succession killed that option, since he would have appeared to be standing down under pressure. As it turned out, Mr Howard telephoned Mr Costello on July 30th to say he would fight the next election as leader, then faxed his decision to his parliamentary colleagues.
A downcast Mr Costello said he accepted that most Liberals did not want a leadership change now, and pledged to stay on as treasurer. This means the budget Mr Costello is due to deliver before the 2007 election will be his 12th (seven years ago, he said he had only "another budget or two in me"). Mr Howard and Mr Costello have formed perhaps Australia's most formidable political partnership ever, delivering strong economic growth, a series of budget surpluses and falling unemployment during their decade in power.
But little personal warmth exists between them. Mr Howard has no time for Mr Costello's liberal social agenda. And, as he turns 49 on August 14th, Mr Costello must contemplate that Mr Howard has now in effect wrecked his leadership ambitions. Even if Mr Howard wins the 2007 election and then retires, a clutch of equally ambitious Liberals is already elbowing forward to compete with Mr Costello for the crown. First, though, the Liberals have to win again. Rising interest rates won't make that any easier.
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11:37 PM - 8/8/2006 -
Hip Hip Hurah for Howard
Personally, I believe no one will be able to undermine Howard whilst the Liberals are in power. I'm glad he's here to stay. But at the end of the day the RBA operate separately to the government and a rate rise is not only inevitable but possibly a good thing in curbing debt.
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