Alternative Fuels
The Looming Energy Crisis
If oil and other fossil fuels have been the key ingredient in the creation of societies and lifestyle we enjoy today - what happens when they're gone?Some, or most, would say good riddance and take your global warming c02 emissions with you! The end of the fossil fuel era would cure all of our pain over man-made emissions.
Sounds great but are we ready for it? Our civilization was built on these products, it was the foundation of our growth as a society and as still being proven today energy resources are the key to raising societies above poverty.
One of the key principles of the Millennium Project is to facilitate the supply of energy - "Energy is central to sustainable development and poverty reduction efforts. It affects all aspects of development -- social, economic, and environmental -- including livelihoods, access to water, agricultural productivity, health, population levels, education, and gender-related issues. None of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be met without major improvement in the quality and quantity of energy services in developing countries."
When it's the fundamental core of success and the creation and maintenance of prosperous and healthy societies have we done enough to secure future energy resources, supplies and technology? And more importantly to set in place the strategy to de-oil our lifestyles.
Yes, there is plenty of talk about global warming and the need for clean renewable energy but little talk about how to remove our addiction to crude oil. Hooking up clean energy sources to the electricity grid is happening now but there is not much movement on the massive societal and infrastructure change needed to move away from the dwindling supply oil.
The automotive fuels sector alone is a massive energy demand powered by oil and you may say the electric car will solve that one but even if a radical plan to swap the something like 1 billion cars in the world to electric vehicles, that would take many years if not decades, still leaves the burning question - what on earth is going to supply all that electricity when we are yet to even supply homes in the effort to eradicate poverty? And that's just one of the oil dependent sectors of our modern lifestyles.
So are we heading for a civilization collapse? Already we can see the geo-political conflicts taking place around the world in the scurry for what's left of the oil supply, we can look at Chinas current fuel crisis and we can look at past events like the 1973 Oil Crisis to get an idea of the effects of minor supply 'blips'.
Perhaps we need to look a little further into past civilizations and what they may warn us of.
Below is an extract from "The Coming Economic Collapse":
Michael Shermer, for instance, in a column for Scientific American, researched sixty civilizations, both ancient and modern. His goal was to discover the life span of the average civilization. For each extinct culture, he calculated how long it remained in existence. For those still in existence, he used their current age.
Shermer concluded that the average life span of civilization is only 421 years. Even more jarring, modern civilizations do not last as long as ancient ones. Among the twenty-eight most recent civilizations-those that sprang into being after the fall of Rome the average life span is only 305 years.
One reason may be that modern civilizations are more complex. By complex, we mean they have a well-developed division of labor, with most jobs requiring specialized skills and training, and that they have a hierarchical leadership structure, with various levels of government and other social institutions. Modern civilizations are also more likely to be in competition with other civilizations, so they demand more natural resources to sustain themselves and protect their territory. In other words, they are expensive to maintain.
Just because a civilization has been around for two or three hundred years, one cannot assume it will last forever. We have no special knowledge that tells us our civilization is more likely to endure than any other. The next crisis-which will likely be a shortfall in energy production-could be our doom.
The collapse of modern civilization would be a catastrophic event, far worse than the popping of the technology bubble. Never mind the financial hardship that would befall almost everyone-the end of our civilization, and its complex division of labor, would result in mass starvation and a level of violence and chaos not seen since the end of the Roman Empire.
If our civilization is to prevent such a future, we cannot allow the approaching energy crisis to catch us unprepared. We must discover the best strategy for preventing disaster, and implement it. We must learn the lessons of past civilizations-those that survived similar crises, and those that succumbed and try to discover what actions will help us survive.
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And I should note that I don't want to leave the impression that the book is some kind of doomsday rag, far from it. It's actually geared towards the investor and written by a well respected economist/investor Stephen Leeb PhD
For even more insight there have been a number of documentaries produced on a looming oil crash:
We Were Warned
CNN presents: An hour long documentary on our addiction to oil and the vulnerability of it's supply.
Site: http://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/presents/index.oil.html
Watch Online: Stage 6
A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash
A 90 minute documentary on the planet's dwindling oil resources.
Site: http://www.oilcrashmovie.com
Peak Oil
From the ABC Four Corners team - The era of cheap oil may be over and a growing number of analysts predict production is about to peak before significantly falling behind demand.
Watch Online: http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
Crude Impact
Crude Impact exposes our deep-rooted dependency on the availability of fossil fuel energy and examines the future implications of peak oil, i.e. the point in time when the amount of petroleum available worldwide begins a steady, inexorable decline.
Watch Online at : veoh.com
Update: SBS will also be screening 'Crude Impact' and 'Energy war' on 18/12/07 so check your guides for those if you are interested.
Albeit a global problem where does it leave Australia, in terms of electricity supply we do have a great number of renewable energy projects in Australia but don't we have a base load solution beyond coal. We do have gas reserves but unfortunately it's easy to see coal and gas being gobbled up fairly quickly in a world of diminishing oil.
If we think solar, wave, wind or geo-thermal it's going to take a monumental deployment of epic proportions to fulfill a base load responsibility even at current demand levels along with a leap in power storage technology. After that is uranium although on an ideologically level that has been written off and without at least scientific development in this field we'll be left standing in the queue for technology from other countries.
So, much like c02 caused global warming, it's a risk of the outcome if we don't act although just far more quantifiable and there can be a 'two birds with one stone' effect with the right technology.
We can make a choice now to accept tough possibly unpopular choices, take action, implement change and ramp up funding on a large scale for alternative energy development and deployment. That's if we want to enjoy a lifestyle we have now and protect that for the future of generations to come. Your choice.
For more information on Peak Oil , energy technology and planning for Australia's Energy Future:
The Queensland Government report - Queensland's vulnerability to rising oil prices - taskforce report
The Government Senate Inquiry - Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels
The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet - Securing Australia's Energy Future
CSIRO - Energy Technology
ASPO - Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
What is Peak Oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the peak of the earth's oil production. This is the point at which oil production or our capacity to find oil reserves has reached it's limit.In 2004, 30 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered.
Even though new discoveries are in decline, in the current Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global demand will continue to grow annually at an average of 1.8 to 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2010.
More Information - See:
Australian Association for the Study of Peak OIL and Gas
For a video on Peak Oil (and there's many) see:
Crude Awakening: Peak Oil & The End of Cheap Energy: Part 2
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